The United Nations (U.N.) is preparing for significant shifts in U.S. support and potential funding cuts as Donald Trump’s possible return to power looms. The organization, which relies heavily on U.S. contributions, anticipates a repeat of challenges it faced during Trump's previous term, including budget reductions and policy changes that impacted U.N. operations. A senior Asian diplomat expressed a sense of "déjà vu and trepidation" as Trump’s recent election win over Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris reignited these concerns. The diplomat noted a cautious optimism, however, hoping that even a transactional Trump administration might still support some U.N. initiatives despite its inclination to defund certain areas, especially given the U.N.’s global influence.

Trump’s stance on foreign policy in his anticipated second term remains somewhat vague, but his “peace through strength” philosophy is expected to shape his interactions with international leaders. He has vowed to resolve the conflict in Ukraine and likely plans to offer staunch support to Israel in its ongoing disputes with groups like Hamas and Hezbollah in Gaza and Lebanon. Trump’s direct and assertive style may signal a more unilateral approach, raising questions about whether the U.S. will continue to be a major player in the multilateral diplomacy the U.N. promotes or if his policies will leave room for increased influence from countries like China.

One of the U.N.’s primary concerns is whether the United States will significantly cut its financial contributions or withdraw from key global agreements, such as the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Paris Climate Agreement. The U.S. is the U.N.'s largest contributor, funding 22% of the core budget and nearly 27% of the peacekeeping budget, with China being the next largest. If U.S. contributions dwindle, it could hinder U.N. operations, especially in peacekeeping, which relies heavily on these funds. Although a country can accumulate arrears for up to two years before losing its General Assembly vote, prolonged withholding of U.S. contributions could jeopardize various programs, giving rise to operational disruptions.

Trump’s previous term also saw him advocating for steep cuts in U.S. diplomacy and foreign aid budgets, impacting U.N. peacekeeping and other international organizations. Though the U.S. Congress resisted some of these proposals, limiting their impact, a second Trump administration could introduce similar budgetary proposals. Richard Gowan, U.N. director at the International Crisis Group, stated that U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres and his team have prepared for a possible Trump return, acknowledging that while they are not entirely unprepared, the coming period could present formidable challenges.

During his initial term, Trump frequently criticized the U.N., asserting that the U.S. was bearing an undue share of the costs and pushing for reforms to reduce these obligations. The U.S. was often behind in payments, and when Trump left office in 2021, the country was overdue by $600 million for the core budget and $2 billion for peacekeeping. President Joe Biden later addressed part of this debt, though the U.S. currently still owes significant amounts to the U.N. Guterres’ spokesperson, Stephane Dujarric, recently affirmed that the U.N. intends to work with the U.S., as with all member states, regardless of policy shifts.

Another major upcoming decision that could be affected by U.S. leadership is the selection of Guterres' successor in 2026, a process in which a Trump administration could wield considerable influence through its veto power in the Security Council. If Trump adopts a confrontational approach, it could result in a shift in the U.N.'s leadership direction, with implications for the organization's stance on global issues.

The return of a Trump presidency could also have ramifications for China’s role at the U.N. and its broader international influence. During Trump’s previous term, his criticisms of multilateralism and steps to distance the U.S. from international agreements, such as the WHO and UNESCO, provided an opening for China to strengthen its position in global diplomacy. A senior European diplomat described a potential Trump victory as “great news for China,” pointing to the increased influence China achieved during Trump’s first term. Another senior diplomat indicated that further U.S. withdrawals from multilateral initiatives would only enhance China’s standing as a promoter of multilateralism, further solidifying its influence within the U.N.

Specific U.N. agencies, such as the U.N. Population Fund (UNFPA), are particularly concerned about the potential withdrawal of U.S. support under Trump. In 2017, Trump’s administration cut funding to UNFPA, alleging that it supported coerced abortions and involuntary sterilization, an accusation the U.N. vehemently denied. Biden’s administration restored funding, allowing UNFPA to continue its work in maternal and child health, family planning, and other areas in over 150 countries. If Trump again curtails support for UNFPA, it could jeopardize services for women in critical crisis zones like Afghanistan, Sudan, and Ukraine, as the agency has warned.

Trump’s first administration also resisted language supporting women’s sexual and reproductive rights in U.N. resolutions, arguing that such language promoted abortion rights. This resistance could re-emerge in his second term, potentially impacting international agreements on women’s health and reproductive rights. An African diplomat expressed concern over Trump’s likely impact on multilateralism, suggesting that his leadership could be a severe setback for international cooperation within the U.N.

As the U.N. braces for a possible second Trump administration, member states are preparing for potential challenges. For some, a U.S. retreat might signify an opportunity to expand their influence on the global stage. However, others worry about the ramifications of reduced U.S. funding and engagement, especially for countries dependent on U.N.-led initiatives. While Guterres and his team have planned for these potential challenges, the organization’s future stability and effectiveness may hinge on the policies Trump adopts if he returns to the White House.